Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

316
FXUS63 KUNR 051123
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
523 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Unsettled westerly flow will then persist through next week with
 fluctuating temperatures

-Cool front will settle in the area Sunday/Sunday night with much
 cooler weather for Monday

-Mild again Tuesday and Wednesday, cooler toward the end of next
 week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Skies have cleared out over the last few hours as upper ridging
attempts to build into the region over the next 48 hours.
Temperatures are currently in the 30s and 40s, with light winds.
Forecast min temps tonight in the 20s/low 30s still on track.
Highs will be in the 50s/60 across most of the CWA...and 40s
across NW SD where snowpack will persist. Central Canadian high
pressure will sag southward into the Dakotas Sunday night, pushing
a backdoor cold front across the western SD plains. Along with
Monday morning fog across the northern/eastern Black Hills, this
could also produce a band of light rain and snow...mostly
drizzle/flurries. Rest of the forecast in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Friday)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Western CONUS ridge will remain in place through mid week as
periodic ridge topping impulses advect into the Northern Plains.
WAA and associate height rises ongoing today. This has support a
few sprinkles or flurries. Skies are expected to clear west to
east today with warmer conds. Expect highs in the 40s and 50s
again Sunday, coolest over the deeper snow pack across NW SD.
Backdoor cold front will slide into the area later Sunday into
Monday, cooling things down for Monday. Baroclinic zone will stall
over the region supporting some chances for light rain or snow
late Sunday night into Monday. Some fog will also be possible
across NW SD and the northern and eastern BH foothills Sunday
night into Monday morning. A clipper system will support much
warmer weather by Tues via strong frontside WAA as highs will
reach the 50s and 60s, with a few 70s possible over the SW third.
Expect a cool down toward the end of next week initiating via a
stronger cold front in the Wed-Thur period per the aforementioned
clipper. Varying degrees of western CONUS troughing indicated in
model solutions supports low forecast confidence toward next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 522 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SE